Predictions of an Aging Baby Boomer
A Personal Experience
I woke up on January 15, 1993 and decided that I was going to quit my job. I was 45 years old, a leading-edge baby boomer. I had worked for 20 years in the public service. My plan had been to work until 55 and then retire with a perfect pension. In retirement, I was going to go back to school to study Psychology, as well as pursue my hobbies of cooking, gardening and antique hunting. My career had gone very well. I had been promoted regularly and had reached management level by 40.
But…….I was stressed out, working 10 hours a day. I had little energy left over each day for my personal life. I woke up every night worrying about the challenges of the coming day. I became increasingly cynical as I lived through downsizing and re-organizations. I had developed a number of minor but chronic health problems. I was neglecting my personal relationships. And, perhaps most importantly, I wasn’t really happy doing what I was doing. I always thought that I should have pursued a career in psychology and teaching.
A Sign of the Times
Does any of this sound familiar to you? My story is not unique. Studies of the morale of modern workers confirm that today’s workplaces generate considerable stress for the average worker. There are even signs, as evidenced by the Duxbury & Higgins’ study for Health Canada on work-life balance, that stress levels are worse than ever. Many of the characteristics of the modern work place do not create a psychologically healthy environment for employees. Take this picture of the workplace and overlay on top of it the fact that a large chunk of the workforce is now between 45 and 60, beating at the doors of retirement. These workers have lived the longest through a period of immense organizational change and uncertainty. How they respond is going to have a huge impact on the future of modern organizations and indeed, on society as a whole.
Who are these “older” workers and what do they want during the final stages of their career? What do they think about work and retirement? And what are they going to do about it? Ignoring these questions or coming up with the wrong answers to these questions could have serious consequences, especially for organizations that have a large cohort of older workers. Fortunately, more and more research is taking place in an effort to inform us about these boomers in the pre-retirement zone and what they are going to do. Studies are beginning to provide us with a clearer picture of the pushes and pulls affecting leading-edge boomers and their attitude to work and retirement.
Some Predictions
Anticipating future human resource challenges is an important role for the human resource specialist. It involves a combination of knowledge, experience, good instincts and luck. Having conducted an extensive survey of Carleton University faculty on quality of life and early retirement and based on my subsequent work with mid-life adults, I have arrived at a number of my own predictions about these aging boomers and the impact they are going to have on the workplace of the future.
Prediction 1: The exodus of boomers is going to occur faster than predicted
We have all read about the impending exodus of the boomers. It has already begun, aided by the extensive early retirement programmes of recent years. These predictions are based largely on demographics, traditional age of retirement, pension eligibility, and traditional views about retirement. These factors combined lead to predictions of a labour shortage as these workers move into full retirement within the next ten to fifteen years.
However, study after study, has demonstrated that workers, including older workers, are finding it increasingly difficult to cope with the stress of work. Working hours are longer than ever and balancing work and family seems impossible. Many leading-edge boomers are at the peak of their careers – whether they are in charge of the file room or the board room. They have experienced major changes in the employment contract, disruptive downsizing and reorganizations, employers who do not seem to value them, and messaging that encourages them to take charge of their own future. Many are cynical, unhappy and feel betrayed. The result is low morale, low motivation and declining health. According to a study by the American Association for Retired Persons (AARP), many are experiencing age bias as well.
Studies have already demonstrated that pre-retirees, in general, look forward to retirement. The belief that retirement will bring greater freedom and choice has always been seductive to most pre-retirees. For example, a majority of faculty at Carleton University reported that they expected to realize major gains in leaving work and moving into retirement. As mid-life boomers begin losing their parents, experience the inevitable signs of aging, and find that their energy levels are not up to the demands of fulltime work, they are going to come to the conclusion that retirement is an attractive alternative.
The bottom line is that many organizations, either knowingly or unknowingly, are pushing the boomers out. This, coupled with the pulls of retirement like greater freedom and choice, will speed up the exodus beyond popular prediction.
Prediction 2: The outflow may not result in labour shortages
In the AARP study a large percentage of baby boomers indicated they intend to work in retirement. The motivation to do so is varied. Some will do so to top up savings and pension income, but many say they will work because they like working. Also, many boomers do not think of themselves as being old and ready for fulltime retirement. Despite the negative health impacts of working, Canadians in mid-life and later life are experiencing higher health levels than ever before. Studies have shown that for many who retire, health levels actually improve. Therefore, even though large numbers of leading edge baby boomers may leave their mid-life careers, many may still be available for work.
Therefore, predictions about possible labour shortages over the next ten to fifteen years need to take into account that those boomers who want to work in retirement may very well be available to feed the demand. In fact, there may be enough such boomers that the labour shortages predicted will not materialize.
Prediction 3: Retired boomers who continue to work will do so on their own terms
Expect leading edge boomers to be very fussy about what kind of work they will do once they retire. Most will want to work part time. This trend is already upon us as noted in a 2002 report entitled Older Workers in the Labour Market; since 1982 there has been a 70% increase in workers between 55 and 62 opting for part-time work. The increasing use of telework, distributed workforces, phased retirement and use of part-time positions will suit many boomers. Leading-edge organizations that have implemented flexible employment practices may find that they are better positioned to hire retired boomers back than more traditional organizations. In fact, progressive organizations who understand their boomer workers, and these are in the minority, may even be able to retain these workers, postponing their inevitable departure from the organization.
Some boomers will want to continue to work part time in their professional field and will expect good compensation for doing so. Some will be interested in serving as mentors and teachers to younger employees who have moved into higher level positions without adequate experience. Many will strike out in new directions, choosing jobs that relate to their interests. Money will continue to play a role in the decision to work but it is not likely to be the prime motivator since many will have some retirement income from savings, private pensions and/or government pensions.
Prediction 4: Retired boomers will fuel the growth of small business
There are already indications that retirees are having a big impact on the growth of small business. Currently, four times as many individuals over 55 are self-employed compared to those under 55. Given the interest of boomers in working in retirement, the desire to work part time and the intention of pursuing what they enjoy doing, it is likely that leading edge boomers will fuel further growth in small business. This trend will be influenced by a desire on the part of the boomers to work for themselves and to have flexible schedules.
Once baby boomers are released from full time work, we may even see a small renaissance as they explore and develop their interests and even their dreams in an entrepreneurial manner.
Prediction 5: Representation of women in senior positions will grow significantly over the next ten years.
A study conducted by Christopher Hayes of Southampton University in the US found that women in their fifties were much more likely to want to continue to work than men of the same age. The men registered much greater desire to retire from their full-time careers. If we consider the differences in the career paths of women and men, this finding is not difficult to understand. Baby boom women, who make up a significant percentage of the Canadian workforce, have either taken time out of their careers to raise children or have gone into career holding patterns while their children were growing up. Many of these women, by the time they reach their mid to late forties, are ready to take on new career challenges. If the early outflow of leading edge boomers includes larger numbers of men than women, we may find that the ratio of women to men in senior level positions shifts in favour of women.
Prediction 6: A new stage of life is emerging.
Life expectancy in Canada continues to shift upwards for both men and women. Not that long ago, it made sense to talk philosophically about the three stages of life – youth, adulthood and old age. These three stages of life were equated with learning, work and retirement, respectively. The point at which people retired (and we are talking mostly about men) was 65 and it was a very clear cut event. You worked, then you retired and then you died.
We are now witnessing a huge shift in this paradigm. Higher life expectancy, coupled with amazing improvements in the health of older Canadians, is making possible a new phase in our adult lives. Between roughly 50 and 70, Canadians can now contemplate choices. There is no need for individuals to choose from just two options – work OR retirement. Leading edge baby boomers will be able to choose work AND retirement. In a recently published study by Jim Nininger, entitled Leaving Work: Managing One of Life’s Pivotal Transitions, one person he interviewed summed it up nicely like this, “You’ve spent the major part of your life in the service of your organization. Your job now is to spend the rest of your life in the service of you.” Many boomers can be expected to see this freedom of choice as an opportunity to build both work and leisure into their retirement plans in whatever combination suits them.
In Conclusion
History has shown that the power of the leading edge of the baby boom has been such that the “age wave”, as Ken Dychwald, the American aging guru, calls it, has driven change, with organizations, including governments, reacting to the wave rather than managing and controlling the flow. In other words, the leading edge of the boom drives change, with organizations generally playing catch-up. Is your organization suitably equipped now with the policies and strategies required to manage this next important transition in the lives of the leading edge boomers? Should the predictions noted here materialize, could your organization adapt successfully? Andrew Templar and Marjorie Armstrong-Stassen in a recent article in HR Professional suggested that ‘the effective employment of older workers is likely to become the key HR challenge of the next decade.” It may be too late for most organizations to retain the leading edge boomers but it isn’t too late for organizations to prepare to tap into this potential workforce after they retire.
I didn’t wait for my organization to find ways to encourage me to complete my mid-life career in the public service. I chose to take charge of my own life and I left the public service almost a year to the day that I decided to quit. I returned to university to do an M.A. in Psychology. I subsequently started a business, put more balance into my life, placing a high priority on my personal interests and relationships, and got healthy. I believe that those fifty-something boomers can’t wait to launch themselves into retirement and when they do, I hope that you and your organization will be ready.
Nancy Conroy, PRP, MA, is CEO of The Conroy Group Inc., creators of LifeScape, a holistic web-based retirement planning tool designed to help employees manage the transition from work to retirement.